A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
